Saturday, August 12, 2006

 

Meet The Quarterbacks


It's been a while since I posted here at the Astigmatic Eye. This fall, I thought I'd start a project. David Lewin wrote an article at Football Outsiders about rating college quarterback prospects. (A more detailed version of the article is found in Pro Football Prospectus 2006. ) Basically, he found a high correlation between games started in college and completion percentage (also in college) and future NFL success. This works for QBs selected in the first or second round. It is not good for determining success for QBs selected in later rounds. I refer you to the linked article or the book, but, from what I understand, the more games a QB starts in college, the more reliable the assesments will be of NFL scouts.

Anyways, I thought that it would be a good idea to track some top QB prospects over the 2006 college football season. Being from Connecticut, I gravitated to the pro game growing up instead of the college game. I had chores to do on the weekend and usually did them on Saturday and watched the NFL on Sunday. I selected eight seniors and David recommended two juniors who may declare for the draft. I got attemption/completion stats from Yahoo Sports, but I had to find the Games Started from team media guides. Cstv.com was invaluable for finding those. Now, I doubt that there will be more than four or five QBs selected in the first two rounds of the draft, but it's good to look at too many rather than too few. For all I know, Brady Quinn may be assumed body and soul into heavenly glory if he leads Notre Dame to the national championship in January. That would drop him off teams draft boards.

Here are the ten, in alphabetical order:

John Beck, BYU Sr.
I probably jinxed Beck by making him the coverboy of this post.


Year





Team GS Att Comp Pct

2003




Beck BYU 4 145 73 50.34

2004




Beck BYU 10 343 192 55.98

2005




Beck BYU 12 513 331 64.52

Total




Beck
26 1001 596 59.54


Brian Brohm, Louisville Jr.

2004



Brohm Loui 0 98 66 67.35
2005



Brohm Loui 10 301 207 68.77
Total



Brohm
10 399 273 68.42


Sam Keller, Arizona State Sr.

2003



Keller AZSt 0 43 23 53.49
2004



Keller AZSt 1 71 42 59.15
2005



Keller AZSt 7 264 155 58.71
Total



Keller
8 378 220 58.20

Kevin Kolb, Houston Sr.

2003



Kolb Hou 13 360 220 61.11
2004



Kolb Hou 11 353 198 56.09
2005



Kolb Hou 12 419 253 60.38
Total



Kolb
36 1132 671 59.28

Chris Leak, Florida Sr.
Leak can also run a bit.

2003



Leak Fla 9 320 190 59.38
2004



Leak Fla 12 399 238 59.65
2005



Leak Fla 12 374 235 62.83
Total



Leak
33 1093 663 60.66

Jordan Palmer, UTEP Sr.
He's got a brother who's pretty good, too.

2003



Palmer UTEP 6 198 98 49.49
2004



Palmer UTEP 12 366 213 58.20
2005



Palmer UTEP 12 434 258 59.45
Total



Palmer
30 998 569 57.01

Brady Quinn, Notre Dame Sr.
I've gone from dislike to ambivalence to acceptance and even fandom of Notre Dame over the years. Some of this stems from BC moving to the ACC (I sorta rooted for the Eagles on and off over the years. One of my sisters was in their pep band years ago.) But mainly it gave me a common rooting interest with alot of my friends who are ND fans. Plus, Charlie Weis is a dead ringer for my buddy Admiral Will, aged twenty years.

2003



Quinn ND 9 332 157 47.29
2004



Quinn ND 12 353 191 54.11
2005



Quinn ND 12 450 292 64.89
Total



Quinn
33 1135 640 56.39

JaMarcus Russell, LSU Jr.

2004



Russell LSU 4 144 73 50.69
2005



Russell LSU 12 311 188 60.45
Total



Russell
16 455 261 57.36

Troy Smith, Ohio State Sr.
I have no beef with the Ohio State University. One of my cousins went to veterinary school there. But the definitive article as part of the name irks me.

2004



Smith OHSt 5 122 68 55.74
2005



Smith OHSt 10 237 149 62.87
Total



Smith
15 359 217 60.45

Drew Stanton, Michigan State Sr.

2003


Stanton MISt 0 3 2 66.67
2004


Stanton MISt 7 220 141 64.09
2005


Stanton MISt 11 355 236 66.48
Total


Stanton
18 578 379 65.57


I plan to track these ten quarterbacks each week and update their numbers accordingly. If anyone else shows up as a top prospect, I may add them. For now, let's review their totals:


Name


GS Att Comp Pct
Total John
Beck
26 1001 596 59.54
Total Brian
Brohm
10 399 273 68.42
Total Sam
Keller
8 378 220 58.20
Total Kevin
Kolb
36 1132 671 59.28
Total Chris
Leak
33 1093 663 60.66
Total Jordan
Palmer
30 998 569 57.01
Total Brady
Quinn
33 1135 640 56.39
Total JaMarcus
Russell
16 455 261 57.36
Total Troy
Smith
15 359 217 60.45
Total Drew
Stanton
18 578 379 65.57

Quinn actually has the lowest completion percentage of the 10 at the moment. But Leak and Kolb are the only ones to have started as many games. I have no clue how to project 2006 completion pct, but QBs should still continue to improve in their early 20s and only Beck threw more often last year than Quinn. Stanton completes close to two out of every three passes. But, and someone who's more of a college fan can correct me if I'm wrong, the Spartan's run a spread offense. That may inflate his completion percentage.

See you in a couple of weeks, if not earlier.

Comments:
Good start. I didn't realize Drew Stanton's numbers were so good. He's looking good so far. Chris Leak will also be interesting to watch; he was such a high recruit and there's people who are disappointed in him.

Like I said Daly, I'll be tracking all season.
 
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