The Astigmatic Eye

It's been a while since I posted here at the Astigmatic Eye. This fall, I thought I'd start a project. David Lewin wrote an article at Football Outsiders about rating college quarterback prospects. (A more detailed version of the article is found in Pro Football Prospectus 2006. ) Basically, he found a high correlation between games started in college and completion percentage (also in college) and future NFL success. This works for QBs selected in the first or second round. It is not good for determining success for QBs selected in later rounds. I refer you to the linked article or the book, but, from what I understand, the more games a QB starts in college, the more reliable the assesments will be of NFL scouts.

Anyways, I thought that it would be a good idea to track some top QB prospects over the 2006 college football season. Being from Connecticut, I gravitated to the pro game growing up instead of the college game. I had chores to do on the weekend and usually did them on Saturday and watched the NFL on Sunday. I selected eight seniors and David recommended two juniors who may declare for the draft. I got attemption/completion stats from Yahoo Sports, but I had to find the Games Started from team media guides. Cstv.com was invaluable for finding those. Now, I doubt that there will be more than four or five QBs selected in the first two rounds of the draft, but it's good to look at too many rather than too few. For all I know, Brady Quinn may be assumed body and soul into heavenly glory if he leads Notre Dame to the national championship in January. That would drop him off teams draft boards.

Here are the ten, in alphabetical order:

John Beck, BYU Sr.
I probably jinxed Beck by making him the coverboy of this post.

	Year							Team	GS	Att	Comp	Pct
	2003						Beck	BYU	4	145	73	50.34
	2004						Beck	BYU	10	343	192	55.98
	2005						Beck	BYU	12	513	331	64.52
	Total						Beck		26	1001	596	59.54

Brian Brohm, Louisville Jr.

2004					Brohm	Loui	0	98	66	67.35
2005					Brohm	Loui	10	301	207	68.77
Total					Brohm		10	399	273	68.42

Sam Keller, Arizona State Sr.

2003					Keller	AZSt	0	43	23	53.49
2004					Keller	AZSt	1	71	42	59.15
2005					Keller	AZSt	7	264	155	58.71
Total					Keller		8	378	220	58.20

Kevin Kolb, Houston Sr.

2003					Kolb	Hou	13	360	220	61.11
2004					Kolb	Hou	11	353	198	56.09
2005					Kolb	Hou	12	419	253	60.38
Total					Kolb		36	1132	671	59.28

Chris Leak, Florida Sr.
Leak can also run a bit.

2003					Leak	Fla	9	320	190	59.38
2004					Leak	Fla	12	399	238	59.65
2005					Leak	Fla	12	374	235	62.83
Total					Leak		33	1093	663	60.66

Jordan Palmer, UTEP Sr.
He's got a brother who's pretty good, too.

2003					Palmer	UTEP	6	198	98	49.49
2004					Palmer	UTEP	12	366	213	58.20
2005					Palmer	UTEP	12	434	258	59.45
Total					Palmer		30	998	569	57.01

Brady Quinn, Notre Dame Sr.
I've gone from dislike to ambivalence to acceptance and even fandom of Notre Dame over the years. Some of this stems from BC moving to the ACC (I sorta rooted for the Eagles on and off over the years. One of my sisters was in their pep band years ago.) But mainly it gave me a common rooting interest with alot of my friends who are ND fans. Plus, Charlie Weis is a dead ringer for my buddy Admiral Will, aged twenty years.

2003					Quinn	ND	9	332	157	47.29
2004					Quinn	ND	12	353	191	54.11
2005					Quinn	ND	12	450	292	64.89
Total					Quinn		33	1135	640	56.39

JaMarcus Russell, LSU Jr.

2004					Russell	LSU	4	144	73	50.69
2005					Russell	LSU	12	311	188	60.45
Total					Russell		16	455	261	57.36

Troy Smith, Ohio State Sr.
I have no beef with the Ohio State University. One of my cousins went to veterinary school there. But the definitive article as part of the name irks me.

2004					Smith	OHSt	5	122	68	55.74
2005					Smith	OHSt	10	237	149	62.87
Total					Smith		15	359	217	60.45

Drew Stanton, Michigan State Sr.

2003				Stanton	MISt	0	3	2	66.67
2004				Stanton	MISt	7	220	141	64.09
2005				Stanton	MISt	11	355	236	66.48
Total				Stanton		18	578	379	65.57

I plan to track these ten quarterbacks each week and update their numbers accordingly. If anyone else shows up as a top prospect, I may add them. For now, let's review their totals:

	Name				GS	Att	Comp	Pct
Total	John		Beck		26	1001	596	59.54
Total	Brian		Brohm		10	399	273	68.42
Total	Sam		Keller		8	378	220	58.20
Total	Kevin		Kolb		36	1132	671	59.28
Total	Chris		Leak		33	1093	663	60.66
Total	Jordan		Palmer		30	998	569	57.01
Total	Brady		Quinn		33	1135	640	56.39
Total	JaMarcus		Russell		16	455	261	57.36
Total	Troy		Smith		15	359	217	60.45
Total	Drew		Stanton		18	578	379	65.57

Quinn actually has the lowest completion percentage of the 10 at the moment. But Leak and Kolb are the only ones to have started as many games. I have no clue how to project 2006 completion pct, but QBs should still continue to improve in their early 20s and only Beck threw more often last year than Quinn. Stanton completes close to two out of every three passes. But, and someone who's more of a college fan can correct me if I'm wrong, the Spartan's run a spread offense. That may inflate his completion percentage.

See you in a couple of weeks, if not earlier.