The Astigmatic Eye

Date	Name		Team	GS	Att	Comp	Pct

21-Oct	John	Beck	BYU	1	23	18	78.26
28-Oct	John	Beck	BYU	1	31	23	74.19
2006	John	Beck	BYU	7	229	162	70.74
Total	John	Beck		33	1230	758	61.63

21-Oct	Brian	Brohm	Loui	1	26	18	69.23
2006	Brian	Brohm	Loui	5	137	83	60.58
Total	Brian	Brohm		15	536	356	66.42

21-Oct	Kevin	Kolb	Hou	1	30	20	66.67
28-Oct	Kevin	Kolb	Hou	1	34	22	64.71
2006	Kevin	Kolb	Hou	9	297	200	67.34
Total	Kevin	Kolb		45	1429	871	60.95

28-Oct	Chris	Leak	Fla	1	28	14	50.00
2006	Chris	Leak	Fla	8	201	124	61.69
Total	Chris	Leak		41	1294	787	60.82

21-Oct	Jordan	Palmer	UTEP	1	30	19	63.33
27-Oct	Jordan	Palmer	UTEP	1	37	21	56.76
2006	Jordan	Palmer	UTEP	8	269	183	68.03
Total	Jordan	Palmer		38	1267	752	59.35

21-Oct	Brady	Quinn	ND	1	45	27	60.00
28-Oct	Brady	Quinn	ND	1	25	18	72.00
2006	Brady	Quinn	ND	8	303	193	63.70
Total	Brady	Quinn		41	1438	833	57.93

21-Oct	JaMarcus	Russell	LSU	1	19	15	78.95
2006	JaMarcus	Russell	LSU	8	193	135	69.95
Total	JaMarcus	Russell		24	648	396	61.11

21-Oct	Troy	Smith	OHSt	1	23	15	65.22
28-Oct	Troy	Smith	OHSt	1	21	14	66.67
2006	Troy	Smith	OHSt	9	215	145	67.44
Total	Troy	Smith		24	574	362	63.07

21-Oct	Drew	Stanton	MISt	1	37	27	72.97
28-Oct	Drew	Stanton	MISt	1	22	10	45.45
2006	Drew	Stanton	MISt	9	237	144	60.76
Total	Drew	Stanton		27	815	523	64.17

Ouch! Saturday, against Indiana, Stanton was replced mid-game. I'm not sure if he was hurt or not.

I figured that I'd get this out of the way early this week. John Beck and Brady Quinn we're on bye this week while Brian Brohm returned from an injury. Drew Stanton got hurt during the Spartans-Buckeyes game, but should return next week.

Date

Name

Team

GS

Att

Comp

Pct

2006	John	Beck	BYU	5	175	121	69.14
Total	John	Beck		31	1176	717	60.97

14-Oct	Brian	Brohm	Loui	1	37	20	54.05
2006	Brian	Brohm	Loui	4	111	65	58.56
Total	Brian	Brohm		14	510	338	66.27

14-Oct	Kevin	Kolb	Hou	1	38	22	57.89
2006	Kevin	Kolb	Hou	7	233	158	67.81
Total	Kevin	Kolb		43	1365	829	60.73

14-Oct	Chris	Leak	Fla	1	17	9	52.94
2006	Chris	Leak	Fla	7	173	110	63.58
Total	Chris	Leak		40	1266	773	61.06

14-Oct	Jordan	Palmer	UTEP	1	29	22	75.86
2006	Jordan	Palmer	UTEP	6	202	143	70.79
Total	Jordan	Palmer		36	1200	712	59.33

2006	Brady	Quinn	ND	6	233	148	63.52
Total	Brady	Quinn		39	1368	788	57.60

14-Oct	JaMarcus	Russell	LSU	1	18	15	83.33
2006	JaMarcus	Russell	LSU	7	174	120	68.97
Total	JaMarcus	Russell		23	629	381	60.57

14-Oct	Troy	Smith	OHSt	1	22	15	68.18
2006	Troy	Smith	OHSt	7	171	116	67.84
Total	Troy	Smith		22	530	333	62.83

14-Oct	Drew	Stanton	MISt	1	16	8	50.00
2006	Drew	Stanton	MISt	7	178	107	60.11
Total	Drew	Stanton		25	756	486	64.29

Before I take off, get a load of Colt Brennan's stats. He's a junior at Hawaii and IIRC, June Jones uses that crazy run and shoot. I have no idea if he's a pro prospect (Timmy Chang set records for the Warriors), but he's got a QB name.

Let's get into last weeks results here:

Date

Name

Team

GS

Att

Comp

Pct

7-Oct	John	Beck	BYU	1	21	16	76.19
2006	John	Beck	BYU	5	175	121	69.14
Total	John	Beck		31	1176	717	60.97

2006	Brian	Brohm	Loui	3	74	45	60.81
Total	Brian	Brohm		11	473	318	67.23

7-Oct Kevin Kolb Hou 1 31 24 77.42 2006 Kevin Kolb Hou 6 195 136 69.74 Total Kevin Kolb 42 1327 807 60.81
7-Oct Chris Leak Fla 1 26 17 65.38 2006 Chris Leak Fla 6 156 101 64.74 Total Chris Leak 39 1249 764 61.17 7-Oct Jordan Palmer UTEP 1 32 25 78.13 2006 Jordan Palmer UTEP 5 173 121 69.94 Total Jordan Palmer 35 1171 690 58.92 7-Oct Brady Quinn ND 1 37 27 72.97 2006 Brady Quinn ND 6 233 148 63.52 Total Brady Quinn 39 1368 788 57.60 7-Oct JaMarcus Russell LSU 1 41 24 58.54 2006 JaMarcus Russell LSU 6 156 105 67.31 Total JaMarcus Russell 22 611 366 59.90 7-Oct Troy Smith OHSt 1 20 17 85.00 2006 Troy Smith OHSt 6 149 101 67.79 Total Troy Smith 21 508 318 62.60 7-Oct Drew Stanton MISt 1 35 20 57.14 2006 Drew Stanton MISt 6 162 99 61.11 Total Drew Stanton 24 740 478 64.59 In response to a question from last week about JaMarcus Russell, I'm not familiar with LSU so I don't know what system they use. I wanted to watch their game with Florida, but life got in the way. In any case, Russell has relatively few starts and this is a sign that he may be misrated come draft time.

First off, David Lewin showed up over the weekend in Football Outsiders mailbag
He had this to say about the QB projection system: The research tells us that scouts rarely miss on guys with high games started, the only exceptions being cases where they do not properly consider the importance of completion percentage (Cade McNown). Quinn will probably finish his career with a completion rate of about 59 percent. Typically quarterbacks above 58 or 59 percent are underrated by scouts, those with completion percentages below this threshold are over-rated, and those with completion percentages right at it are usually rated correctly.

And:...college system effects are one thing that the projection formula does not handle well (Tim Couch being Exhibit A). The only way the system accounts for college system effects is that teams try not to draft guys who are just products of their college system. Remember, the projection system only applies to first- and second-round picks.

With that in mind, let's look at the BMOC:

Date

Name

Team

GS

Att

Comp

Pct

28-Sep	John	Beck	BYU	1	37	23	62.16
2006	John	Beck	BYU	4	154	105	68.18
Total	John	Beck		30	1155	701	60.69

Beck was back this week as the Cougars snapped TCU's 13 game winning streak.

2006	Brian	Brohm	Loui	3	74	45	60.81
Total	Brian	Brohm		11	473	318	67.23

Brohm is still out for a bit; probably another month or so.

30-Sep	Kevin	Kolb	Hou	1	28	18	64.29
2006	Kevin	Kolb	Hou	5	164	112	68.29
Total	Kevin	Kolb		41	1296	783	60.42

I didn't realize that the "l" in Kolb was silent.

30-Sep	Chris	Leak	Fla	1	20	14	70.00
2006	Chris	Leak	Fla	5	130	84	64.62
Total	Chris	Leak		38	1223	747	61.08

His numbers look good, but I don't know enough about college football to tell if that's an Urban Meyer effect or not. He went from 59.4 and 59.7 as an underclassman to 62.8 and 64.6 the last two years.

30-Sep	Jordan	Palmer	UTEP	1	26	18	69.23
2006	Jordan	Palmer	UTEP	4	141	96	68.09
Total	Jordan	Palmer		34	1139	665	58.38

30-Sep	Brady	Quinn	ND	1	38	29	76.32
2006	Brady	Quinn	ND	5	196	121	61.73
Total	Brady	Quinn		38	1331	761	57.18

30-Sep	JaMarcus	Russell	LSU	1	20	18	90.00
2006	JaMarcus	Russell	LSU	5	115	81	70.43
Total	JaMarcus	Russell		21	570	342	60.00

30-Sep	Troy	Smith	OHSt	1	25	16	64.00
2006	Troy	Smith	OHSt	5	129	84	65.12
Total	Troy	Smith		20	488	301	61.68

30-Sep	Drew	Stanton	MISt	1	24	15	62.50
2006	Drew	Stanton	MISt	5	127	79	62.20
Total	Drew	Stanton		23	705	458	64.96

Russell and Leak face off this Saturday at 3:30.