Tuesday, October 03, 2006


Week 5

First off, David Lewin showed up over the weekend in Football Outsiders mailbag
He had this to say about the QB projection system: The research tells us that scouts rarely miss on guys with high games started, the only exceptions being cases where they do not properly consider the importance of completion percentage (Cade McNown). Quinn will probably finish his career with a completion rate of about 59 percent. Typically quarterbacks above 58 or 59 percent are underrated by scouts, those with completion percentages below this threshold are over-rated, and those with completion percentages right at it are usually rated correctly.

And:...college system effects are one thing that the projection formula does not handle well (Tim Couch being Exhibit A). The only way the system accounts for college system effects is that teams try not to draft guys who are just products of their college system. Remember, the projection system only applies to first- and second-round picks.

With that in mind, let's look at the BMOC:


28-Sep John Beck BYU 1 37 23 62.16
2006 John Beck BYU 4 154 105 68.18
Total John Beck 30 1155 701 60.69

Beck was back this week as the Cougars snapped TCU's 13 game winning streak.

2006 Brian Brohm Loui 3 74 45 60.81
Total Brian Brohm 11 473 318 67.23

Brohm is still out for a bit; probably another month or so.

30-Sep Kevin Kolb Hou 1 28 18 64.29
2006 Kevin Kolb Hou 5 164 112 68.29
Total Kevin Kolb 41 1296 783 60.42

I didn't realize that the "l" in Kolb was silent.

30-Sep Chris Leak Fla 1 20 14 70.00
2006 Chris Leak Fla 5 130 84 64.62
Total Chris Leak 38 1223 747 61.08

His numbers look good, but I don't know enough about college football to tell if that's an Urban Meyer effect or not. He went from 59.4 and 59.7 as an underclassman to 62.8 and 64.6 the last two years.

30-Sep Jordan Palmer UTEP 1 26 18 69.23
2006 Jordan Palmer UTEP 4 141 96 68.09
Total Jordan Palmer 34 1139 665 58.38

30-Sep Brady Quinn ND 1 38 29 76.32
2006 Brady Quinn ND 5 196 121 61.73
Total Brady Quinn 38 1331 761 57.18

30-Sep JaMarcus Russell LSU 1 20 18 90.00
2006 JaMarcus Russell LSU 5 115 81 70.43
Total JaMarcus Russell 21 570 342 60.00

30-Sep Troy Smith OHSt 1 25 16 64.00
2006 Troy Smith OHSt 5 129 84 65.12
Total Troy Smith 20 488 301 61.68

30-Sep Drew Stanton MISt 1 24 15 62.50
2006 Drew Stanton MISt 5 127 79 62.20
Total Drew Stanton 23 705 458 64.96

Russell and Leak face off this Saturday at 3:30.

His numbers look good, but I don't know enough about college football to tell if that's an Urban Meyer effect or not.

Excellent point. Maybe that would explain Alex Smith (but it's still probably too early to say for sure). Leak's number weren't that bad his first 2 years (again, consider his poor system in the first place).

I guess that would mean our boy Quinn should be ok. I just don't like the way he looks at times, but I know that's partly cause I can't get against my anti-ND bias.
This is interesting, GGC. Are any of these guys beneficiaries of changed systems during the time they've been at their college? JaMarcus Russell's numbers this year are amazing.
Oh, tybalt is me, John Lowenstein Apathy Club, by the way.
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