The Astigmatic Eye

First off, David Lewin showed up over the weekend in Football Outsiders mailbag
He had this to say about the QB projection system: The research tells us that scouts rarely miss on guys with high games started, the only exceptions being cases where they do not properly consider the importance of completion percentage (Cade McNown). Quinn will probably finish his career with a completion rate of about 59 percent. Typically quarterbacks above 58 or 59 percent are underrated by scouts, those with completion percentages below this threshold are over-rated, and those with completion percentages right at it are usually rated correctly.

And:...college system effects are one thing that the projection formula does not handle well (Tim Couch being Exhibit A). The only way the system accounts for college system effects is that teams try not to draft guys who are just products of their college system. Remember, the projection system only applies to first- and second-round picks.

With that in mind, let's look at the BMOC:

Date

Name

Team

GS

Att

Comp

Pct

28-Sep	John	Beck	BYU	1	37	23	62.16
2006	John	Beck	BYU	4	154	105	68.18
Total	John	Beck		30	1155	701	60.69

Beck was back this week as the Cougars snapped TCU's 13 game winning streak.

2006	Brian	Brohm	Loui	3	74	45	60.81
Total	Brian	Brohm		11	473	318	67.23

Brohm is still out for a bit; probably another month or so.

30-Sep	Kevin	Kolb	Hou	1	28	18	64.29
2006	Kevin	Kolb	Hou	5	164	112	68.29
Total	Kevin	Kolb		41	1296	783	60.42

I didn't realize that the "l" in Kolb was silent.

30-Sep	Chris	Leak	Fla	1	20	14	70.00
2006	Chris	Leak	Fla	5	130	84	64.62
Total	Chris	Leak		38	1223	747	61.08

His numbers look good, but I don't know enough about college football to tell if that's an Urban Meyer effect or not. He went from 59.4 and 59.7 as an underclassman to 62.8 and 64.6 the last two years.

30-Sep	Jordan	Palmer	UTEP	1	26	18	69.23
2006	Jordan	Palmer	UTEP	4	141	96	68.09
Total	Jordan	Palmer		34	1139	665	58.38

30-Sep	Brady	Quinn	ND	1	38	29	76.32
2006	Brady	Quinn	ND	5	196	121	61.73
Total	Brady	Quinn		38	1331	761	57.18

30-Sep	JaMarcus	Russell	LSU	1	20	18	90.00
2006	JaMarcus	Russell	LSU	5	115	81	70.43
Total	JaMarcus	Russell		21	570	342	60.00

30-Sep	Troy	Smith	OHSt	1	25	16	64.00
2006	Troy	Smith	OHSt	5	129	84	65.12
Total	Troy	Smith		20	488	301	61.68

30-Sep	Drew	Stanton	MISt	1	24	15	62.50
2006	Drew	Stanton	MISt	5	127	79	62.20
Total	Drew	Stanton		23	705	458	64.96

Russell and Leak face off this Saturday at 3:30.